Cloud AI: Machine Learning & Generative AI

Forecasting & Anomaly Detection

Demand, capacity and spend all have patterns. Forecasting predicts them; anomaly detection flags when reality breaks them. With Azure Anomaly Detector retired, it is a good time to review your options.

Multicloud AI & ERP / Cloud AI: Machine Learning & Generative AI

Forecasting & Anomaly Detection: diagram comparing AWS, Azure and Google Cloud
How a forecast and an anomaly alert work, and how AWS, Azure and Google Cloud each implement it.

Why it matters

Better forecasts mean less stock tied up, fewer shortages and right-sized capacity. Anomaly detection catches fraud, faults and runaway cloud costs within minutes instead of at month end.

How it works

Forecasting

Historical time series plus known drivers such as holidays and promotions feed a model that predicts future values with confidence bands. Pretrained foundation models for time series now produce useful forecasts with no training at all.

Anomaly detection

Instead of fixed thresholds, a model learns the normal pattern including seasonality and alerts when actuals leave the expected band, reducing false alarms while catching real problems.

AWS, Azure and Google Cloud compared

AWSAzureGoogle Cloud
Pretrained forecastingChronos (SageMaker, Bedrock)AutoML forecastingTimesFM in BigQuery ML
SQL forecastingRedshift MLKQL series functionsARIMA_PLUS, ML.FORECAST
Metric anomaliesCloudWatch anomaly detectionAzure Monitor dynamic thresholdsCloud Monitoring alerting
Data anomaliesSageMaker modelsKQL anomaly functions, FabricML.DETECT_ANOMALIES
Spend anomaliesCost Anomaly DetectionCost Management anomaly alertsBilling anomaly detection

What makes each cloud different

AWS

AWS offers Chronos, a family of pretrained forecasting models, alongside SageMaker AutoML and no-code forecasting in SageMaker Canvas. CloudWatch anomaly detection learns bands on metrics automatically.

Azure

Azure AI Anomaly Detector was retired in October 2026. Its replacements are KQL time-series functions in Azure Data Explorer and Fabric, Fabric Real-Time Intelligence for streaming detection and Azure ML AutoML for forecasting.

Google Cloud

BigQuery ML forecasts with ARIMA_PLUS, including holiday effects, and TimesFM, Google's pretrained forecasting model, both from SQL. ML.DETECT_ANOMALIES flags outliers in the warehouse.

Design decisions that matter

  1. 01Bands, not single numbers

    Plan with ranges and probabilities.

  2. 02Include known events

    Holidays and promotions drive most errors.

  3. 03Learned baselines over fixed thresholds

    Fewer false alarms.

  4. 04Migrate off Anomaly Detector

    Plan the move to supported services.

Common mistakes we see

  • Single-point forecasts. Planners cannot see risk.
  • Fixed alert thresholds. Alerts fire every Monday morning.
  • Retired APIs in production. Workloads stop when the service ends.

A practical 30-day plan

  1. Week 1

    Pick one forecast and one anomaly use case.

  2. Week 2

    Test a pretrained model against your current method.

  3. Week 3

    Add known events and confidence bands.

  4. Week 4

    Replace fixed thresholds with learned baselines.

How NTS helps

NTS builds forecasting and anomaly detection on AWS, Azure and Google Cloud, including migrations off Azure Anomaly Detector, using pretrained time-series models and in-warehouse ML.

What you get

  • Forecast models for demand, capacity or revenue
  • Anomaly detection on business and operational metrics
  • Alerts that reach the right owners
  • Accuracy tracking against actuals

Typical outcomes

  • Better planning for inventory and capacity
  • Problems spotted before customers notice
  • Measured forecast accuracy

How we work with you

  1. 1Assess

    A focused review of your forecasting and anomaly detection across AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. We look for the gaps we find most often: single-point forecasts, fixed alert thresholds and retired APIs in production.

  2. 2Design

    A target architecture and roadmap built on the decisions that matter most: bands, not single numbers, include known events, learned baselines over fixed thresholds and migrate off Anomaly Detector.

  3. 3Build

    Hands-on delivery alongside your team. We pick one forecast and one anomaly use case, test a pretrained model against your current method, add known events and confidence bands, and finally replace fixed thresholds with learned baselines.

  4. 4Run and improve

    We monitor accuracy, retrain models and adjust thresholds as patterns change.

Why teams choose NTS for forecasting and anomaly detection

  • Forecasts people plan with

    We provide ranges and accuracy, not just single numbers.

  • Fewer false alarms

    We tune anomaly detection to what really matters.

  • Built on your data platform

    Models run where your data already lives.

Book a free 30-minute review

Talk to an NTS architect about your forecasting and anomaly detection on AWS, Azure and Google Cloud.